If you assume our Portland metro market will slow down in 2020, the numbers indicate otherwise.
Our real estate market has to slow down soon, right?
Well, Hong Kong is the highest-valued real estate market in the world, and it’s on a 20-year run. We’re in year 11 of our run, meaning our housing market’s been going strong since 2010.
What do homebuyers and economists think? According to a recent survey by Realtor.com, 53% of homebuyers think there will be a recession this year. Back in 2018, Pulsenomics conducted a survey of experts and found out that 67% of them predicted 2020 would be the year we saw a recession. In 2019, that number from the same survey dropped to 34%. Last month, it plummeted down to 14.6%.
What do the latest numbers from our market indicate? By the end of January, home sales in the Portland metro area were down 1% compared to January 2019. Sales in Southwest Washington, meanwhile, rose 5%, and sales in Salem saw a 6% increase. It looks like the Portland market is declining, but it’s not. Why? January 2019 ended with 3.3 months of inventory; last month, we were below two months’ worth (as was the Vancouver market).
Although sales were down slightly, there were significantly fewer sellers in the market in 2020 compared to 2019, which means demand is sky-high. We’re seeing many bidding wars, and homes priced below $600,000 are flying off of the market.
I believe inventory will stay low moving forward, and a lot of new construction is being built to even out supply and demand. That’s why we’re seeing more home sales in the northern part of our market—it’s cheaper to build there now than it was in the past. Until supply and demand even out, we’ll continue to see strong sales growth and appreciation.
The bottom line: Our market is strong, and we’re seeing numbers we don’t normally see until spring hits. If you’re thinking of selling, don’t wait until summer. Make your move now. If you have any questions about our market or concerning real estate, please reach out to us via phone or email. We would love to help you.